Strategy analysisone of the six knowledge areas of the core guide
  • Couverture de l'eBook Analyse décisionnelle — version français
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16 - Decision Analysis

16 - Decision Analysis

Decide well, even in the fog

When the future refuses to be predicted, intuition alone wears thin: you go round in circles, convictions are set against convictions, and fear of risk freezes the decision.

Decision analysis puts the uncertainty down in black and white. It quantifies what each option returns in each scenario, compares them on a single basis, and clearly separates the expected gain from the risk you agree to carry. You follow the method step by step, through to the final calculation, the robustness test and the communication of the decision.

This guide does not teach you to remove risk. It teaches you to see it, to quantify it, and to choose with your eyes open.
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What you get

  • A PDF to read on screen or print
  • The language you pick above, delivered by e-mail within the minute
  • The volume's blank template, ready to reuse
  • Future corrections and additions, at no extra cost
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What's inside

Nine chapters, the same in every volume of the collection. You learn the structure once, then find it again in every book.

  1. Welcome to the collectionWho this book is for · how to read it · why a fictional company
  2. Edelw'ice, a company with a taste for changeStructure, culture, and the challenge of the moment
  3. The problemThe case Edelw'ice has to solve: what it costs, and what nobody dares say
  4. Understanding the methodWhat the technique does, what it does not do, and its golden rule
  5. The turning pointWhat the method changes: the situation before, the situation after
  6. The method, step by stepEvery step, in order, with what it produces
  7. What it changedThe effects that take hold, and what to remember
  8. Key takeawaysThe method in one sentence · when to use it · the steps · strengths and limits
  9. Glossary and resourcesYour blank template · the essential glossary · what comes next in the collection
The full table of contents, exactly as printed in the book. Click to enlarge

The technique, played out on a real case

Edelw'ice makes artisanal ice cream in French-speaking Switzerland. It is a fictional company, and that is deliberate: the same company runs through every volume of the collection, with its teams, its constraints and its disagreements. You meet it again from one book to the next, so you never have to relearn the setting — only the technique. Who is Edelw'ice

This volume's case

An investment to commit for three years, limited capital, and a future nobody knows. The volume sets out the possible futures, assigns each a probability, and calculates what every option returns on average.

3

scénarios d'avenir posés

50 %

pour le scénario le plus probable

120 000 CHF

de capital disponible

Frequently asked questions

Do I need to know the BABOK to use it?

No. The volume is written for someone who has to run Monday's session, not to prepare for a certification. The reference guide is cited at the end of each chapter, for those who want it.

How do I receive the file?

By e-mail, within a minute of payment, in the language chosen on this page. The link stays valid: you can download it again later from the same e-mail.

Is the German edition a translation?

No. It is adapted to the Requirements Engineering framework and vocabulary actually used by German-speaking practitioners.

Can I print it, or share it with my team?

Printing for your own use is intended. To equip several people, in several languages, there is a company plan.